With the warming up of demand, the price of cold-drawn seamless steel pipe in Wuxi market keeps rising, which has reached a new high in the year up to now. The cold-drawn seamless steel pipe in Shaoguan Iron and Steel Company has exceeded 5000 yuan/ton, and the cumulative increase has reached 300 yuan/ton after the festival. Specific circumstances are as follows: cold-drawn seamless steel pipe prices hit a new high in the year. At the beginning of this month, the high price of cold-drawn seamless steel pipe continued at the end of last year, but the overall price fell sharply in January; the overdue consolidation trend of the Spring Festival in January; the price declined again in the month after the Spring Festival due to the slow start of demand; the price increased significantly in January with the recovery of demand, and the demand was not affected by rainy weather in the month. The price of cold-drawn seamless steel pipes in Guangzhou Shaoguan Iron and Steel Co. Ltd. has risen to a new high since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative increase of yuan tons. Overall, the three highs up to this year are as follows: the first is the continuation of last year's high price at the beginning of the year, in which the price of Shaoguan Steel's thread is yuan ton; the second is the month-day of Shaoguan Steel's thread yuan ton; the third is the current (month-day) yuan ton, from which we can see that the current price has basically approached the high price at the beginning of the year, and set a new one in the year. A new high. 市场库存及钢厂库存均创新低。2017年全年广州冷拔无缝钢管库存未突破80万吨，主流在35-60万吨之间徘徊，库存高位在春节前后为72.3万吨，低点在12月底为31.46万吨。受去年年底及今年初南北价差大影响，今年1-3月份北材南下集中，至3月下旬达到高峰突破120万吨，达到126.1万吨，4月份后随着需求的释放库存开始下降，至10月下旬创下全年新低，也是近两年以来新低为27万吨左右。
Market inventory and steel plant inventory are innovative low. In 2017, the stock of cold-drawn seamless steel tubes in Guangzhou did not exceed 800,000 tons, while the mainstream hovered between 350,000 and 600,000 tons. The high stock level was 723,000 tons around the Spring Festival and the low point was 314,600 tons at the end of December. Affected by the price gap between North and South at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, Beibu concentrated in the south from January to March, reaching a peak of 1.2 million tons in late March, reaching 1.261 million tons. After April, with the release of demand, inventory began to decline, reaching a new year low in late October, which is also a new low of about 270,000 tons in recent two years.
Statistical analysis of cold-drawn seamless steel pipe inventory in mainstream steel plants in Wuxi Province. Thread stocks in mainstream steel mills in the province are mainly maintained in the range of 20-300,000 tons, with a very short period of less than 200,000 tons. A short period of less than 200,000 tons appeared in January-February at the beginning of the year, and a new low of about 173,000 tons was achieved in the latter part of this month.
The price difference between North and South threads has been widened, but it is basically in a reasonable range. Over the whole year, the price trend of cold-drawn seamless steel pipe in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou is basically the same. The price difference between Guangzhou and Beijing mainstream is maintained at Yuan tonne (before weighing conversion), while the price difference between Guangzhou mainstream and Beijing maintains below yuan tonne and above yuan tonne (before weighing conversion) is relatively short. However, with the continuous rise of Guangzhou prices after January, The North-South price gap has widened, from yuan tons at the end of the month to yuan tons so far, converted into over-weighted price difference of about yuan tons. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangzhou is currently about one yuan ton, which is equivalent to the over-weighted price difference of one yuan ton. From this point of view, although the North-South price gap has widened, it is basically within the reasonable range of freight difference, while the pre-price gap is small or basically no price difference.
It is understood that, taking into account the implementation of the new target on January 2nd, most local steel mills began to intentionally reduce their in-plant inventory at the end of the month in order to prevent the increase of inventory during the Eleventh National Day holiday, but unexpectedly, during the Eleventh National Day holiday this year, demand performance was strong, shipments were significantly better than in previous years, and the average daily shipments of some manufacturers were no less than normal working days. As a result, after the 11th National Day, the stock of steel mills did not increase as expected, but kept low. In terms of market stock, due to the limited arrival of steel mills in other provinces, such as North China and East China, and the actual market demand was better than previous years and expectations, the overall stock also maintained low level. After the National Day holiday, due to the strong market demand, Shaoguan Steel and Guangdong dominated the steel mills. Steel, Xianggang and other factories have continued to have low inventories, irregular specifications and shortage of supply and demand, resulting in a sustained increase in factory prices, and some nearby private steel factories have basically operated at a low level. In addition, due to the impact of environmental protection supervision in Guangxi, resource shortage, manufacturers have increased factory prices to promote a comprehensive rise in market prices.
For next month's price trend, considering the rising cost of the new standard implementation steel mill, it will provide favorable support or certain impetus to the market price; on the other hand, the current market price has reached a higher position, which is the second highest level in nearly two years after the end of last year's rise (the highest yuan tonne of thread in Guangzhou Shaoguan Steel in mid-January, the difference from the current price is RMB yuan). Tons). In addition, with the arrival of the month and the shrinking demand in the north, the resources going southward are bound to increase, which will restrict local prices. Considering the above factors, it is expected that the overall monthly price will be mainly consolidated with strong shocks.
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