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    需求回暖 无锡市场冷拔无缝钢管再创新高

    2018-11-28 08:26:13 无锡盛发地坪科技有限公司 阅读

    随着需求的回暖,无锡市场冷拔无缝钢管价格持续上扬,截至目前已创年内新高,韶钢冷拔无缝钢管已突破5000元/吨,节后累计涨幅已达300元/吨;库存方面,市场库存以及钢厂库存均创年内新低。具体情况如下:冷拔无缝钢管价格创年内新高。今年月初延续去年月底冷拔无缝钢管高位价格,不过一月份整体价格出现断崖式下跌;月份春节过度期盘整态势;春节后月份由于需求启动缓慢,价格再度下滑;月份随着需求的陆续恢复价格明显回升,月受雨水天气等影响需求不佳弱势盘整,月份再度冲高,月份适度盘整;月份国庆后价格持续上扬创下年初高位后的价格新高,截至目前(月日)广州韶钢冷拔无缝钢管价格为元吨,累计涨幅元吨。总体来看,截至目前今年以来的三个高点:第一个为年初延续去年的高价位,其中韶钢螺纹价格为元吨;第二个高点:月日韶钢螺纹元吨;第三个高点便是目前(月日)元吨,由此来看目前价格已基本接近年初高价位,创下年内的又一新高。

    With the warming up of demand, the price of cold-drawn seamless steel pipe in Wuxi market keeps rising, which has reached a new high in the year up to now. The cold-drawn seamless steel pipe in Shaoguan Iron and Steel Company has exceeded 5000 yuan/ton, and the cumulative increase has reached 300 yuan/ton after the festival. Specific circumstances are as follows: cold-drawn seamless steel pipe prices hit a new high in the year. At the beginning of this month, the high price of cold-drawn seamless steel pipe continued at the end of last year, but the overall price fell sharply in January; the overdue consolidation trend of the Spring Festival in January; the price declined again in the month after the Spring Festival due to the slow start of demand; the price increased significantly in January with the recovery of demand, and the demand was not affected by rainy weather in the month. The price of cold-drawn seamless steel pipes in Guangzhou Shaoguan Iron and Steel Co. Ltd. has risen to a new high since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative increase of yuan tons. Overall, the three highs up to this year are as follows: the first is the continuation of last year's high price at the beginning of the year, in which the price of Shaoguan Steel's thread is yuan ton; the second is the month-day of Shaoguan Steel's thread yuan ton; the third is the current (month-day) yuan ton, from which we can see that the current price has basically approached the high price at the beginning of the year, and set a new one in the year. A new high. 市场库存及钢厂库存均创新低。2017年全年广州冷拔无缝钢管库存未突破80万吨,主流在35-60万吨之间徘徊,库存高位在春节前后为72.3万吨,低点在12月底为31.46万吨。受去年年底及今年初南北价差大影响,今年1-3月份北材南下集中,至3月下旬达到高峰突破120万吨,达到126.1万吨,4月份后随着需求的释放库存开始下降,至10月下旬创下全年新低,也是近两年以来新低为27万吨左右。

    Market inventory and steel plant inventory are innovative low. In 2017, the stock of cold-drawn seamless steel tubes in Guangzhou did not exceed 800,000 tons, while the mainstream hovered between 350,000 and 600,000 tons. The high stock level was 723,000 tons around the Spring Festival and the low point was 314,600 tons at the end of December. Affected by the price gap between North and South at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, Beibu concentrated in the south from January to March, reaching a peak of 1.2 million tons in late March, reaching 1.261 million tons. After April, with the release of demand, inventory began to decline, reaching a new year low in late October, which is also a new low of about 270,000 tons in recent two years.

    统计无锡省内主流钢厂冷拔无缝钢管库存情况。从全年来看,省内主流钢厂螺纹库存主要维持区间在20-30万吨,20万吨以下非常短暂,年初1-2月份出现短暂的20万吨以下以外,本月下旬再创新低在17.3万吨左右。

    Statistical analysis of cold-drawn seamless steel pipe inventory in mainstream steel plants in Wuxi Province. Thread stocks in mainstream steel mills in the province are mainly maintained in the range of 20-300,000 tons, with a very short period of less than 200,000 tons. A short period of less than 200,000 tons appeared in January-February at the beginning of the year, and a new low of about 173,000 tons was achieved in the latter part of this month.

    南北螺纹价差有所拉大但基本处于合理范围。全年来看,北京、上海、广州三地市场冷拔无缝钢管价格走势基本一致,其中广州与北京主流价差维持在元吨(过磅折算前),价差保持在元吨以下以及元吨(过磅折算前)以上的均较为短暂,不过月份后随着广州价格的持续上扬,南北价差有所拉大,由月底的元吨至目前为止拉大至元吨,折算为过磅价差为元吨左右。上海与广州螺纹价差目前在元吨左右,同理折算为过磅价差在元吨。由此来看,南北价差虽有拉大,但目前基本处于运费差合理范围内,而前期价差较小或基本没有价差。

    The price difference between North and South threads has been widened, but it is basically in a reasonable range. Over the whole year, the price trend of cold-drawn seamless steel pipe in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou is basically the same. The price difference between Guangzhou and Beijing mainstream is maintained at Yuan tonne (before weighing conversion), while the price difference between Guangzhou mainstream and Beijing maintains below yuan tonne and above yuan tonne (before weighing conversion) is relatively short. However, with the continuous rise of Guangzhou prices after January, The North-South price gap has widened, from yuan tons at the end of the month to yuan tons so far, converted into over-weighted price difference of about yuan tons. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangzhou is currently about one yuan ton, which is equivalent to the over-weighted price difference of one yuan ton. From this point of view, although the North-South price gap has widened, it is basically within the reasonable range of freight difference, while the pre-price gap is small or basically no price difference.

    据了解,考虑到月日新标的执行,本地大部分钢厂月底开始有意降低厂内库存,以防十一国庆假期库存的增加,但意外的是今年十一假期期间需求表现强劲,出货明显好于往年,且部分厂家日均出货量不亚于平日正常工作日,导致十一后钢厂库存并未如预期增加反而始终保持低库存;市场库存方面,由于北方材及华东材等外省钢厂到货有限,而市场实际需求也好于往年及预期,整体库存也维持低位;国庆假期后,由于市场需求较旺,主导钢厂韶钢、粤钢、湘钢等厂内库存持续低位,且出现规格不齐,供不应求现象,导致厂家出厂价格持续上调,周边部分民营钢厂库存也基本低位运行,加之广西环保督察影响,资源紧俏,厂家纷纷上调出厂价格,推动市场价格全面上扬。

    It is understood that, taking into account the implementation of the new target on January 2nd, most local steel mills began to intentionally reduce their in-plant inventory at the end of the month in order to prevent the increase of inventory during the Eleventh National Day holiday, but unexpectedly, during the Eleventh National Day holiday this year, demand performance was strong, shipments were significantly better than in previous years, and the average daily shipments of some manufacturers were no less than normal working days. As a result, after the 11th National Day, the stock of steel mills did not increase as expected, but kept low. In terms of market stock, due to the limited arrival of steel mills in other provinces, such as North China and East China, and the actual market demand was better than previous years and expectations, the overall stock also maintained low level. After the National Day holiday, due to the strong market demand, Shaoguan Steel and Guangdong dominated the steel mills. Steel, Xianggang and other factories have continued to have low inventories, irregular specifications and shortage of supply and demand, resulting in a sustained increase in factory prices, and some nearby private steel factories have basically operated at a low level. In addition, due to the impact of environmental protection supervision in Guangxi, resource shortage, manufacturers have increased factory prices to promote a comprehensive rise in market prices.

    对于下月价格走势,考虑到新标执行钢厂成本的上升,对市场价格提供有利支撑或一定推动;另一方面,目前市场价格已到较高位置,已是近两年距去年年底冲高后的第二高位(年月中旬广州韶钢螺纹最高元吨,距目前价格差为元吨)。此外,随着月的到来,北方需求的萎缩,南下资源势必将有所增加,对本地价格将有所制约。综合以上各方面因素考虑,预计月整体价格以震荡偏强盘整为主。

    For next month's price trend, considering the rising cost of the new standard implementation steel mill, it will provide favorable support or certain impetus to the market price; on the other hand, the current market price has reached a higher position, which is the second highest level in nearly two years after the end of last year's rise (the highest yuan tonne of thread in Guangzhou Shaoguan Steel in mid-January, the difference from the current price is RMB yuan). Tons). In addition, with the arrival of the month and the shrinking demand in the north, the resources going southward are bound to increase, which will restrict local prices. Considering the above factors, it is expected that the overall monthly price will be mainly consolidated with strong shocks.



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